Crude seaborne trade to remain flat for the next three years — Crude destocking in 2017-18, non-crude liquids bypassing the refining system and higher domestic crude runs should limit crude seaborne trade though 2018.  Refinery bypass includes NGLs transferring directly into LPG supply, biofuels, GTLs, direct crude burn and refinery gains.  The crude tanker orderbook, at 18% of the fleet, is not so “moderate” under this demand regime.