Market commentary in October 2014 suggested that the sale of PDVSA’s three Citgo refineries would unleash significant volumes of Venezuelan crude from the Citgo crude slates for Chinese export, and thus boost VLCC demand by as much as 4%. This is unlikely. Actual Citgo Venezuelan imports are modest, but necessary for the plants. Instead, rising tight oil production and Canadian crude imports should send Latin American volumes eastward, but the shift in Saudi pricing posture after we published this report should change the extent. If successful in pricing US tight oil and Canadian oil sands out of the market, then PADD3 seaborne imports will not fall as much and the refiners’ crude wall would be less acute.  Download report here.